Verde, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

562
FXUS66 KLOX 090516
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1016 PM PDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...08/923 AM.

High pressure aloft building over the region will bring a gradual
warming trend through Thursday. Daytime high temperatures will be
well above normal temperatures away from the coast for late week.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will remain confined to
the coast through the week until onshore flow returns for cooler
temperatures this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...08/1016 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today was fairly quiet with mostly sunny skies and breezy winds
along the Central Coast. Spots of clouds pushed into the Santa
Ynez Valley along with portions of interior San Luis Obispo and
the Cuyama Valley. 500 mb heights rose around 2 DAM as the high
pressure ridge builds in further, keeping marine layer clouds
shallow under a strong inversion.

High pressure builds further overnight tonight, and as the onshore
LAX-DAG gradient drops to around 1-0 mb, any marine layer clouds
that form could also create dense fog. Expecting the Catalina eddy
to support clouds over southern portions of the waters, and will
likely see clouds linger over the coastal waters and near
immediate coasts. The current forecast looks on track with a
warming trend, however may need to cool temperatures along the
Central Coast 5-8 degrees or so, as that area struggled to warm
today.

***From Previous Discussion***

High pressure is starting to amplify along the west coast which
will be the beginning of our mini heat wave for inland areas.
Already seeing early signs of warming today in the foothills and
mountains and gradients trending weaker. The ridge will peak
Thu/Fri which will also be the warmest days with highs in the mid
90s in the western San Fernando Valley (near record levels) and
upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere in the valleys (including
interior parts of SLO and SB Counties). This is 10-15 degrees
above normal. Coastal areas will be warmer than normal as well but
more to the tune of 1-5 degrees above normal with patches of
dense fog possible near the beaches. Currently not planning to
issue any heat risk hazards for this event as daytime
temperatures, while warm, are not quite warm enough in most areas,
and overnight and early morning temperatures are in the 50s which
will provide plenty of recovery.

Some gusty north winds will develop again this evening across
southwest Santa Barbara County and parts of the I5 corridor.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...08/209 PM.

High pressure will begin to weaken Friday as the next trough moves
into the eastern Pacific and West Coast. It`s very slow moving and
will impact our weather with much cooler temperatures beginning
Saturday and continuing well into next week. Models still
projecting a LAX-DAG onshore flow of close to 9mb on Monday, so
expect increasing west to southwest winds across the mountains and
deserts, a deepening marine layer that likely will spread into at
least some of the valleys, and afternoon temperatures dropping to
the 60s for coastal areas and only low to mid 70s at best for the
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...08/2334Z.

At 2258Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 700 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was at 2700 ft with a temperature of 19
degrees Celsius.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD,
and KWJF. There is a 10% chance for VLIFR to IFR vsbys/cigs at
KSMX between 07Z and 17Z.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining coastal TAFs. If stratus
arrives at a terminal, LIFR to IFR conds are most likely. However,
there is a 30% chance for VLIFR conds at any site once stratus
arrives. Highest chances for flight cat changes is between 07Z and
17Z, although cigs may arrive as soon as 03Z at KLAX/KSMO/KLGB.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance for cigs
VV001-VV002 and/or vsbys less than 1/2SM between 07Z and 17Z,
with highest chances between 12Z and 16Z. Cigs may arrive as early
as 03Z with current stratus hugging the coastline. No significant
east wind component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...08/841 PM.

A shallow marine layer will bring a risk of dense fog to anywhere
in the coastal waters thru the week. The highest chances are off
the Central Coast, and off the coast of L.A./Orange Counties.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds (21+ kt) and/or
seas (10+ ft) in the outer waters thru late tonight or early
Wed morning. After a lull Wed morning, there is a 60% chance for
SCA level winds to return to the central and northern zones from
the afternoon through late night hours, and a 30-40% chance for
the southern zone. Then Thurs afternoon through Sat night, SCA
winds are likely (70-90% chance) across the entire Outer Waters.
Seas will build Friday evening and continue through the weekend,
peaking between 12-15 feet. There is a 30% chance of GALE force
winds at times Fri thru Sat eve.

In the nearshore waters north of Point Conception, SCA winds are
likely (60-80% chance) each afternoon/eve thru Sat, except for a
lower chance (50% chance) Wed afternoon/eve. There is a moderate
to likely chance for SCA level seas Sat.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds are possible during
the afternoon/eve hours Thurs thru Sat, with highest chances
Friday and Saturday (50-60% chance) in the western half of the
channel.

In the southern inner waters, SCA conds are not expected thru Sat
night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Black/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox